Summary:

• The jobs market has been very strong;
• The demand for workers is moderating slowly; and
• There has been a notable rise in the supply of workers;
• That combination will see the unemployment rate rise to over 4.5% by end-2024.

The jobs market has been strong

One of the great success stories of the pandemic economic rebound (in Australia and other developed countries) has been the strong performance of the jobs market. The monthly growth in jobs has slowed. But it had to, given that the rate of jobs increase post the pandemic was unsustainable. The 12-month average jobs change in August was around its highest level in the thirty-plus years prior to COVID. The unemployment rate was still near fifty-year lows.

To read my full update, click here.

We live in interesting times.

Regards,

Peter Munckton - Chief Economist

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